All eyes across the nation are now fixed on Bihar, where a high-stakes electoral battle is rapidly taking shape as political parties finalize their candidate lists. What emerges clearly from the unfolding scenario is that this contest will be fiercely fought, with neither the ruling National Democratic Alliance(NDA)-which governs both Bihar and the Centre-nor the opposition INDIA Bloc, locally known as the Mahagathbandhan, enjoying any easy path to victory. For both major coalitions, Bihar represents far more than just another state election and both sides are deploying their full arsenal of resources, strategies, and leadership to secure triumph. The NDA in Bihar is led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, a veteran politician often characterized as the “somersault king” for his frequent political realignments. However, concerns about Kumar’s health have sparked speculation about whether a BJP Chief Minister might eventually replace him should the NDA emerge victorious. Yet the BJP has demonstrated remarkable skill in managing coalition dynamics, and the party may well choose to allow Nitish to continue until a strategic transition becomes necessary. Had popular BJP leader Sushil Modi been alive, the party would have found it considerably easier to position Nitish Kumar’s JDU as a junior partner. On the opposition front, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav is fighting with equal determination and urgency. He was tantalizingly close to the Chief Minister’s chair in 2020 only to be denied because the Congress party failed to win even a quarter of the seats it had extracted through seat-sharing negotiations. This election represents perhaps his most critical political test. Though relatively young, Tejashwi cannot afford to wait indefinitely for his moment. Time may be on his side demographically, but politically, this election could determine whether he becomes a force to reckon with or fades into irrelevance. A defeat this time could relegate him and his party to political wilderness, with the BJP unlikely to permit a vanquished opponent to remain a persistent threat. To drive home the message, BJP has warned that Tejashwi is jail-bound on past corruption charges. For Prime Minister Modi, Bihar holds exceptional strategic importance. Victory would not only deliver another major state into NDA hands but would also provide the crucial numbers- both MPs and MLAs-needed to push through the constitutional amendments required for implementing the “One Nation, One Election” proposal. This makes Bihar a pivotal battleground in the larger debate about India’s electoral architecture. The INDIA Bloc appears to hold a marginal advantage currently, having strategically projected Tejashwi Yadav as the Chief Ministerial face and Mukesh Sahani of the Vikassheel Insaan Party as the Deputy Chief Ministerial candidat-a formula carefully calibrated to balance caste equations and appeal to diverse social groups. Like most North Indian elections, Bihar’s contest will ultimately be decided by intricate calculations of caste arithmetic and religious considerations. However, the BJP has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to defy conventional wisdom and overturn seemingly insurmountable odds. The party’s electoral machinery, organizational strength, and resource mobilization capabilities should never be underestimated. As November approaches, Bihar’s voters will not merely choose a state government-they will signal which direction India’s political winds are blowing. Will they opt for the traditional multi-election democratic framework that provides numerous opportunities for diverse leadership, or will they endorse a consolidated system that concentrates power and potentially creates a more presidential form of governance? The answer will reverberate far beyond Bihar’s borders, shaping the contours of Indian democracy for years to come.
Sunday, October 26, 2025