A deft maneuver

A significant political realignment is taking place in the North East where the National People’s Party (NPP) is initiating the formation of a new pan-regional force, reportedly beginning with the potential merger of Tripura’s TIPRA party. At the helm, Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma is pushing for a single, “strong voice” for the region’s people.The plan appears unassailable since the North East’s complex political map has been fragmented, allowing national parties to dictate terms. This proposed alliance, spearheaded by the region’s only “National Party,” signals a powerful ambition to alter that dynamic. The central question, however, is whether this is a genuine quest for regional autonomy or a sophisticated maneuver to increase bargaining power within the existing national power structure? This move comes in the light of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls which served as a potent warning to the BJP-led NDA. Sangma’s own NPP was humbled in his own home turf in Tura at the Lok Sabha 2024 polls which was wrested by the Congress. While the NEDA won 16 of 25 Lok Sabha seats in the North East, this number masks a worrying trend. The NDA lost both seats to Congress in Manipur and the single seat to the Congress in Nagaland, and one of two in Meghalaya to the Congress and one to a new party. An analysis of assembly segment leads from that election is even more stark- the Congress led in 36 of 60 segments in Manipur and 27 of 60 in Nagaland(no voting in 20 seats in Eastern Nagaland). This erosion of support in the tribal heartlands is precisely the leverage Sangma is using. He envisions that the NPP will regain its influence in Meghalaya but in his own state, the NPP was checkmated by Voice of People’s Party(VPP), a potent challenger and the Congress. On the surface, it may appear that Sangma’s new strategy may appear strategic but his gambit built on a “national outlook but a regional mindset,” may not find a smooth sailing. For one, his strategy is not to create an opposition front since the NPP, TIPRA, and most potential partners are already allied with the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the regional North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). This is a move is thus, reduced to creating a consolidated “tribal bloc” within the larger alliance. Sangma wants to show Delhi that when it comes to tribals, he and not Himanta Sarma (NEDA Convenor) is the ‘man to go to.” This initiative is also an implicit admission that NEDA has been an insufficient platform for truly regional, indigenous-centric issues. Instead of each regional party negotiating individually with Delhi, Sangma aims to create a pressure group that can negotiate collectively, with him as the “first among equals.” However, this plan could be put to severe test in the subsequent assembly elections and the 2029 Lok Sabha election when would have to pitch for a Congress mukt- Purvottar (Northeast) when regional parties in Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya hold dominance. The most glaring logical hurdle is the “alliance paradox”. The North East is not a monolith- it is deeply divided, historically and ethnically and having contentious inter-state border disputes, that make a pan-Northeast identity elusive. It therefore, appears difficult to imagine parties from different states setting aside their own specific interests for an untested agenda.