Takeaways from Bihar

The recently concluded Bihar Assembly elections have underscored several political realities that now define India’s electoral landscape. Foremost among them is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s continuing ability, as the dominant force within the National Democratic Alliance(NDA), to maintain electoral momentum despite formidable challenges. The BJP’s success lies in a calculated convergence of state power, financial resources, and strategic acumen. The BJP has skilfully navigated a system involving key investigative and regulatory agencies, such as- the Enforcement Directorate (ED), National Investigation Agency (NIA), Intelligence Bureau (IB), and the Election Commission (ECI) to consistently create an environment favorable for achieving victory. Even the corporate owned-Indian media has fallen prey to the strategy where independent investigation and the voice of the opposition have been curtailed to only as passing mention. Whether this represents strategic brilliance or an unhealthy consolidation of official power, remains a matter of political and public debate, but its effectiveness is undeniable. No political formation in the country today possesses a grassroots structure as extensive as the BJP, with a huge army of around 2 to 3 crore active (karyakartas)who provide it not only with manpower but with ideological coherence and electoral stamina. In addition, in a nation where political fortunes often depend on booth-level mobilization, the Rashtriya Swayemsevak Sangh(RSS) with a disciplined and committed army of around One lakh active members(swayamsevaks), lends the BJP with structural advantage no other party currently matches.Above all, the BJP benefits from the leadership pairing of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. Modi’s status as the party’s undisputed national figurehead, combined with Shah’s reputation as the chief electoral strategist, has created a political partnership of exceptional influence. Many state-level contests that might otherwise have tilted against the BJP have been salvaged through this leadership duo’s ability to set the terms of political engagement, often leaving the opposition-especially the Congress-outmaneuvered, outclassed, and outspent. The Bihar results also illuminate the faltering trajectory of the much-publicized INDIA bloc. The alliance, envisioned as a united front against the BJP, has failed to perform and now finds itself at a crossroads, if not a dead end. Regional parties, though eager to challenge the BJP, ironically remain wary of conceding space to the Congress. In state after state, the Congress confronts resistance not only from opponents but from its supposed allies, undermining its attempts to assert itself as the coalition’s national anchor. As internal discontent grows and partners drift away, the Congress must confront uncomfortable questions about its leadership, organizational fragility, and increasingly ambiguous national narrative.Looking ahead, it appears likely that India’s political landscape will continue to be shaped primarily by the BJP. Regional parties may win pockets of power, and in some cases even form state governments, yet the BJP has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to recalibrate, regroup, and sometimes even engineer internal realignments to its advantage, as seen several states.The overarching message from Bihar is clear- the BJP’s ascendancy will not be easily reversed. For the opposition to mount a meaningful challenge, it must move beyond rhetorical narratives and invest in sustained, ground-level organizational work. Despite the BJP’s dominance, it is essential to remember that only 36.56% of the voters nationwide(2024) vote for BJP and a majority of the electorate still remain outside its fold. The question is whether the opposition can convert that latent space into a compelling and credible political alternative.