Old habits haunt Congress

The continuing rivalry between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar has pushed the Congress government in Karnataka into a prolonged zone of uncertainty. The ongoing power struggle between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar has already drained the Karnataka Congress of cohesion, credibility, and purpose. However, the path ahead could turn even darker if tensions continue to escalate and factional loyalties harden. If this happens, then the state may soon witness the collapse of its Congress government- brought down not by the opposition, but by the party’s own inability to manage ambition, ego, and internal discipline. Unlike the cadre-based BJP, the Congress has many who only committed only to power. When they don’t get power, they rebel and if that fails they defect to other parties. If this happens in Karnataka the Congress could very well find itself fighting each other as the BJP watches gleefully as its rival is decimated from within. The Congress high command, after several rounds of internal consultations, appears unwilling to replace Siddaramaiah mid-term. The argument is simple- a stable leadership is necessary to preserve the 2023 mandate, and any abrupt change could unleash cascading rebellions. However, to ignore the aspirations and organisational clout of DK Shivakumar would be equally risky. As a result, the central leadership is likely to adopt a face-saving middle formula-one that does not remove Siddaramaiah but gives Shivakumar a nominal “roadmap” for greater influence. This may take the form of periodic leadership reviews, enhanced authority over party affairs, or additional space for his loyalists in decision-making. Such a compromise may hold the government together, but it is unlikely to resolve the core rivalry. Instead, the conflict may simply shift from public statements to quiet maneuverings within the party and bureaucracy. Shivakumar, with his strong base in the Vokkaliga belt and control over the party organisation, will continue to consolidate his position. Siddaramaiah, relying on his mass appeal, social welfare credentials, and broader acceptability across communities, will focus on maintaining his political relevance and the stability of his cabinet. In this uneasy equilibrium, the real casualty is governance. A government distracted by internal power will struggle and inevitably slow down policy decisions get delayed, bureaucracy treads carefully, and ministers hesitate to take initiatives that could attract factional criticism. For party that came to power promising welfare delivery, economic revival, and clean governance, the open crack will erode public confidence. The opposition, especially the BJP, stands to gain the most. It does not need to engineer defections or topple the government; it simply needs to wait and exploit the perception of instability. Every public disagreement between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar strengthens the narrative that Congress is consumed by leadership battles rather than public welfare. Looking ahead, the leadership issue is almost certain to resurface before the next Assembly elections. Shivakumar’s supporters will again argue that he is best placed to consolidate Vokkaliga votes and strengthen the party’s organisational base. Siddaramaiah’s camp will counter that his mass appeal and welfare record offer the more winnable formula. What Congress needs now is not temporary truce but genuine introspection. It must decide whether it wants to remain hostage to internal rivalries or present a united, competent administration capable of delivering on its promises. This is Rahul Gandhi’s call.