Reflections on recent polls

Three incumbent governments in–Tamil Nadu (DMK), Kerala (LDF), and West Bengal (TMC)– faced humiliating defeats as voters signalled that “enough was enough” after years of their rule. In Tamil Nadu, the incumbent Chief Minister M. K. Stalin suffered a shocking personal defeat at the hands of a Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) candidate, V.S. Babu by over 8000 votes, marking the first time a sitting chief minister has lost his own seat in the state in recent memory. The 2026 verdict ended nearly six decades of DMK–AIADMK alternation, marking the rise of a third political pole in Tamil Nadu and forcing both Dravidian parties into soul searching over ideology, leadership, and mass contact. Strategically, it also redefined Tamil Nadu’s role in national politics: the BJP–NDA and other outsiders now see a more fragmented state landscape, where no single Dravidian party can easily dominate alliances. The defeat of Dravidian-centric parties (DMK and AIADMK) means that national parties like Congress and BJP will have a wider opening to venture into. In Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee again tasted defeat at the hands of the BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari, this time from Bangaon, her home constituency. This was her second consecutive loss to Adhikari after her earlier defeat to him in Singur in 2021.In contrast, in Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma managed to withstand the anti incumbency wave through a deft combination of administrative and electoral tactics. The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which reportedly deleted around 2.4 lakh voters, and delimitation that fragmented minority-vote concentrations, helped blunt the opposition’s momentum. Be that as it may, the broader picture is clear: the political map of eastern and southern India has undergone a significant shift, with the BJP sweeping West Bengal and Assam and emerging as the new central pole in these regions, while the DMK, LDF, and TMC have all been pushed back to the defensive. In Kerala too, the incumbent Marxist led Left Democratic Front (LDF) was routed, clinging only to 35 of the 140 Assembly seats, while the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF) stormed back to power with 102 seats, the largest majority in recent decades. Yet, even a week after the results, the Congress could not agree on a Chief Minister, revealing deep internal uncertainty and the heavy hand of central leadership. The natural choice as the next Keralam chief minister is V. D. Satheesan, the outgoing Leader of the Opposition and the most visible UDF face in the campaign, who enjoyed strong backing from the party’s Kerala unit and key ally IUML. However, K.C. Venugopal, the AICC general secretary and blue-eyed boy of Rahul Gandhi and MP, has thrown his hat by claiming support from a majority of Congress MLAs. The third aspirant is senior leader Ramesh Chennithala, though his support base was more limited and symbolic. Had Venugopal stayed out, the UDF leadership would likely have coalesced quickly around Satheesan, as was already the informal expectation within the state party and the alliance. His intervention turned a simple, provincial succession contest into a prolonged power tussle, mixing Kerala’s internal balance with Delhi centric calculations and delaying the formation of a stable government. The BJP’s poll juggernaut in Assam and West Bengal serves as an eye-opener for southern states. Kerala faces a likely challenge, while Tamil Nadu could see a carrot-and-stick approach. BJP’s ambition to dominate South India ensures it won’t settle for the status quo.