Mumbai, June 5 (IANS): The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday projected real GDP growth for 2026-27 at 6.6 per cent, with quarterly growth estimated at 6.6 per cent in Q1, 6.3 per cent in Q2, 6.5 per cent in Q3 and 6.8 per cent in Q4. Announcing the projections after the three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said prolonged global supply chain disruptions, volatility in global financial markets and weather-related shocks continue to pose downside risks to the domestic growth outlook. He noted that India’s manufacturing and services PMI indicate continued resilience in both sectors, while business expectations remain positive. Private consumption has remained resilient, supported by discretionary spending, while fixed investment has sustained momentum despite cost pressures. Merchandise exports recorded strong growth in April 2026 despite elevated freight and insurance costs, and services exports have also remained robust amid sustained demand.
Malhotra said the Indian economy has broadly demonstrated resilience and withstood spillover effects from global conflicts, although rising cost pressures are beginning to emerge. He stated that CPI inflation remains below the target despite global shocks, as the pass-through to domestic prices has been limited. While headline inflation is expected to firm up towards the upper tolerance level in Q3 of 2026-27, the impact of supply shocks is projected to ease from Q4 onwards, with underlying inflation pressures remaining benign for now. However, he cautioned that second-round effects on inflation expectations and wages remain a possibility and require close monitoring. The RBI projected CPI inflation for 2026-27 at 5.1 per cent, with Q1 at 4.2 per cent, Q2 at 5.1 per cent, Q3 at 5.9 per cent and Q4 at 5.4 per cent, while core inflation is estimated at 4.7 per cent. The outlook remains uncertain due to global supply chain disruptions, commodity price shocks, a sub-normal south-west monsoon forecast and El Nino risks, although adequate foodgrain stocks and satisfactory reservoir levels provide some comfort.