A fragmented coalition

The recently concluded assembly elections in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu have done more than just change local governments. They have reshaped the larger picture of national politics. What many thought would be small gains for the BJP-led NDA have turned into a major boost for the ruling NDA coalition. At the same time, the opposition INDIA bloc is facing one of its toughest moments yet. The numbers tell the story of deceit and deception. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has been shaken by rebellion, with 60 MLAs breaking away from Mamata Banerjee. This rebellion was taken to the national level when 22 of its Lok Sabha MPs joined an MP-less and MLA-less new party, the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI) of Tripura, which is aligned with the NDA. In Punjab, six AAP Rajya Sabha MPs have crossed over to the BJP. In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena has split again, with six Lok Sabha MPs of the Uddhav faction moving to the Shinde camp. These defections/mergers have given the NDA a stronger position in Parliament, making it easier to push through laws, make key appointments, and negotiate with regional allies from a position of strength. A stronger NDA means smoother passage of controversial bills, faster policy decisions, and less room for the opposition to block or delay government plans. It also changes the balance of power in coalition politics. Regional allies now know they are dealing with a confident ruling bloc, not a fragile partner. On the other side, the INDIA bloc is struggling. Its credibility and unity are under question. The alliance looks divided, and its leadership appears weak. Rahul Gandhi has a national presence but lacks the quality required of a leader. Besides he lacks administrative experience and strong roots in the Hindi heartland. Akhilesh Yadav has regional strength and governance experience but no national reach. Mamata Banerjee, once seen as a strong challenger, has lost ground after her party’s defeat and internal revolt. Shashi Tharoor brings intellectual weight but has little mass appeal. Put together, this shows that the INDIA bloc does not have a clear leader who can unite the alliance and inspire voters. The way forward for the opposition may lie in creating a national coalition committee-a collective leadership model rather than relying on one personality. This would signal unity and democratic consensus, presenting voters with the image of a “government-in-waiting” instead of a fragile alliance. However, leadership alone is not enough. The INDIA bloc must also sharpen its agenda. Simply opposing the government will not work anymore. People want answers on jobs, inflation, federalism, and the protection of democratic institutions and a visible and viable alternative. Unless the opposition can present a clear, practical plan on these issues, it risks becoming irrelevant. For the NDA, the challenge is different. Gaining numbers is one thing, but long-term success depends on delivering good governance. For the INDIA bloc, the challenge is survival. It must rebuild discipline, craft a strong narrative, and show unity. Otherwise, the recent changes in parliamentary arithmetic could become a permanent advantage for the ruling coalition. Indian politics is entering a new phase. The ruling NDA is stronger than ever, while the opposition faces a test of survival. The choices made now-by both sides-will shape the country’s political future for years to come.