A dangerous conflict

The escalating exchange of drone and missile strikes between Iran and Israel is clearly pushing the conflict closer to the brink of a potential nuclear confrontation in the Middle East. Unlike the war in Ukraine-where only Russia possesses nuclear weapons-the stakes are different here: Israel is known to have a nuclear arsenal, while Iran is widely suspected of possessing or developing nuclear capabilities. This underlying threat has driven Israel to launch a pre-emptive strike aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Israel’s devastating offensive, dubbed Operation “Rising Lion,” marked a significant escalation. In a surprise overnight attack, Israeli forces struck key Iranian nuclear facilities and targeted senior military and scientific figures. Among the high-profile casualties were Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chief Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami and Iran’s armed forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri.Further strikes on June 15 confirmed the deaths of two more senior Iranian military leaders: Gen. Gholamreza Mehrabi, deputy of intelligence for the armed forces’ general staff, and Gen. Mehdi Rabbani, deputy of operations. According to Israeli media, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that 200 aircraft were involved in the operation, striking over 100 targets with more than 330 munitions. Earlier, on June 13, Israeli precision rockets had killed three top Iranian military officials: Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, Gen. Hossein Salami, and Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh-the latter being the head of the Revolutionary Guard’s ballistic missile program.Iran responded swiftly by launching over 100 drones targeting Israeli positions. “The [Israeli] regime must await a severe punishment,” warned Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. Analysts now anticipate a series of retaliatory attacks between the two archrivals in the coming weeks, while the international community hopes to avoid a broader regional war. There is growing concern that other powers-such as Turkey, Russia, and China-could be drawn into the conflict on Iran’s side, while the United States, United Kingdom, and France may come to Israel’s defense. Israel, a small nation under existential threat, finds itself in a precarious position-damned if it acts, and damned if it doesn’t. Russia appears to be maneuvering strategically in the Middle East, much like NATO is in Ukraine, potentially offering Iran the kind of military support that could alter the regional balance. Even if Iran does not yet possess nuclear weapons, the possibility of foreign powers like Russia or Turkey supplying them cannot be ruled out. Israel is simultaneously engaged in multiple conflicts-fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian factions, Houthi rebels in Sudan, and various Islamic militant groups in Syria and Iraq. After nearly seven months of relentless warfare in Gaza and ongoing engagements across the region, Israel is increasingly battle-weary but determined to defang its enemies. It is increasingly evident that both the United States and the United Kingdom may have to go beyond supplying weapons to Israel. As the conflict escalates, the likelihood grows that the naval and air forces of both nations will be deployed in active defensive roles. Such a move would mark a significant shift-one that signals not just support, but potential direct involvement in the conflict. The coming weeks may usher in the formation of new alliances, not just along military lines but shaped by economic interests. As the Iran-Israel conflict intensifies, the fragile equilibrium of the Middle East hangs in the balance.