Winter is the fastest warming season in most of the United States, and in certain parts of the country, winter weather never arrived this year. In January 2006, record-breaking temperatures exceeding 90°F were reported in parts of Florida and Texas. For multiple states across the Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions, 2026 was the warmest winter ever, with average temperatures exceeding 20th century seasonal norms by more than 7°F. Due in part to unprecedented warmth in the winter months, snow accumulation hit historic lows in Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, contributing to dangerous and ongoing drought conditions.
The winter warming trend is not an isolated phenomenon. Across the continental United States, the average temperature from December 2025 through February 2026 was 37°F, or about 5°F higher than the 20th century norm. Additionally, a recent report from the non-profit research and advocacy group Climate Central found that between 1970 and 2025, winter temperatures rose in all but five of the 244 cities included in the study – in most cases, by 4°F or more.
Currently, there are only a handful of U.S. cities where average daily lows in the winter months do not fall below 50°F. But, if the current rate of warming continues unchecked, that number will grow considerably in the coming decades.
Using data from Climate Central and NOAA, Climate Crisis 247 identified the U.S. cities where temperatures will never fall below 50°F again. We ranked all 150 cities with available data from both sources on the projected average daily low during the winter season by the end of the century. Calculations were made using local average annual rates of warming between 1975 and 2025 and applying that rate to average local temperatures in the winter of 2025. Only cities where average daily winter lows are not already above 50°F are listed. All cities with projected daily lows of at least 49.9°F between the beginning of December and the end of February are listed.
- 10. Charleston, South Carolina
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 49.9°F daily low; 57.0°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 44.2°F daily low; 51.3°F daily average
City population: 154,338 - 9. Yuma, Arizona
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 50.1°F daily low; 63.5°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 48.7°F daily low; 62.1°F daily average
City population: 100,139 - 8. Tucson, Arizona
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 50.5°F daily low; 63.4°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 46.4°F daily low; 59.3°F daily average
City population: 547,073 - 7. Lafayette, Louisiana
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 50.9°F daily low; 61.4°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 46.5°F daily low; 57.0°F daily average
City population: 121,715 - 6. Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 51.3°F daily low; 63.0°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 46.1°F daily low; 57.8°F daily average
City population: 222,771 - 5. San Antonio, Texas
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 51.4°F daily low; 63.6°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 46.2°F daily low; 58.4°F daily average
City population: 1,479,835 - 4. Austin, Texas
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 51.9°F daily low; 63.7°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 46.2°F daily low; 58.0°F daily average
City population: 979,539 - 3. San Francisco, California
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 52.6°F daily low; 58.7°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 47.7°F daily low; 53.8°F daily average
City population: 830,235 - 2. Las Vegas, Nevada
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 53.4°F daily low; 62.3°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 46.4°F daily low; 55.3°F daily average
City population: 660,400 - 1. New Orleans, Louisiana
Projected winter temperatures by 2100: 54.9°F daily low; 64.5°F daily average
Winter temperatures in 2025: 48.1°F daily low; 57.7°F daily average
City population: 371,853 (Yahoo News)