Climatic stress

India enters the 2026 monsoon season under a cloud of uncertainty, and the warning signs are already visible. Forecasts by the India Meteorological Department and the APEC Climate Centre indicate that rainfall may reach only 92 percent of the long period average. With a strong El Niño expected to continue until the end of the year, the country faces the prospect of another weak monsoon. Past El Niño years such as 2002, 2009, 2015 and 2023 showed how vulnerable India remains to erratic weather, and there is little reason to believe that 2026 will be any different. The most immediate impact will be felt in agriculture. Nearly half of India’s cultivated land depends on rainfall rather than irrigation. Delayed rains and reduced precipitation will shorten sowing periods and lower yields of rice, pulses and other crops. Lower production means lower incomes for farmers and higher food prices for consumers. Rural demand, which supports large sections of the economy, will inevitably weaken. The damage extends beyond food grains. Tea plantations in Assam and West Bengal are already under pressure from rising temperatures and falling humidity, which affect both the quality and quantity of tea leaves. Coffee and spice plantations in southern India are experiencing disrupted flowering and fruit formation. Heatwaves have damaged rice nurseries in several areas, delaying transplanting and raising fears of poor harvests. These are not isolated problems but threats to sectors that support millions of livelihoods and contribute significantly to exports. Water scarcity will become another major concern. Weak rainfall means lower river flows, shrinking reservoirs and depleted groundwater levels. Agriculture, industries and growing cities will compete for limited water resources. Rural communities may face shortages of drinking water, while urban centres dependent on distant reservoirs could experience severe supply disruptions. Reduced water availability will also affect hydropower generation and industrial activity, creating wider economic stress. The human cost of drought and heat cannot be ignored. Extreme temperatures increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. Malnutrition could worsen if crop production declines. Changing weather patterns may alter the spread of mosquito-borne diseases, putting additional pressure on public health systems. Repeated crop failures have often driven farmers into debt and despair, with tragic consequences. Mental health challenges in rural communities remain largely overlooked but are equally serious. The economic consequences will be far-reaching. Governments will be forced to spend more on food distribution, employment schemes and drought relief. Private investment is unlikely to flow into regions facing repeated climate shocks, leaving vulnerable communities trapped in poverty. Migration from villages to cities will increase, placing additional pressure on housing, jobs and public services and creating conditions for social unrest. The Northeast may receive occasional heavy showers, especially in Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh, but uneven rainfall combined with long dry spells will create fresh challenges for farming and water management. Short bursts of rain cannot compensate for prolonged moisture deficits. India can no longer treat weak monsoons as routine seasonal setbacks. Climate variability and rising temperatures are creating a dangerous combination that threatens food security, exports and rural livelihoods. Preparation, adaptation and efficient water management are no longer matters of policy preference but of national necessity. The question is not whether the country can afford to act, but whether it can afford not to. This needs to be seen in the light of rising concerns over economic trends confronting the nation.