Govt. formation in Manipur

The political churn in Manipur has once again reached a decisive crossroads. With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holding 32 seats in the 60-member Assembly, the party is making renewed efforts to form what is being termed a “popular government.” Yet the road back to power is anything but straightforward. Internal rivalries, unresolved ethnic tensions, and competing demands from key stakeholders have combined to make the situation exceedingly fragile. At the centre of the BJP’s dilemma lies a simmering leadership conflict. Former Chief Minister N. Biren Singh is the frontrunner who continues to command the larger support base within the legislature party. He remains the most recognisable face of the BJP in Manipur, especially among the valley MLAs who stand by him despite the contentious legacy of his previous tenure. His political stature is undeniable, but so too is the deep contestation surrounding his leadership. The other claimant is Assembly Speaker Thokchom Satyabrata Singh. Though a senior figure with organisational clout, he does not enjoy a comparable level of support. The BJP’s central leadership is thus forced to navigate a delicate balance between loyalty, pragmatism, and political optics in choosing who should lead the state. Adding further complexity is the firm and uncompromising stance of the 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs, all elected on the BJP ticket. They have categorically refused to endorse either Biren Singh or Satyabrata Singh. Their pre-condition for support to government formation is over their demand for a Union Territory with a legislature for Kuki-Zo areas. For them, constitutional assurances now outweigh party loyalty. The Assembly also includes six Naga MLAs-five from the NPF and one Independent-whose long-standing political and developmental concerns demand equal attention. Any new government that ignores or sidesteps these aspirations will be constructing its foundation on shifting sand. While there is a constitutional obligation to install a duly mandated government, rushing into a political settlement-especially one that reinstates leadership associated with the period of violence-risks destabilising the fragile gains of recent months.Manipur has only recently emerged from a period of near-total administrative collapse. Armed militias, unchecked violence, and lawlessness had pushed the state to the brink. Much of the restoration of order is credited to Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla, who assumed office on January 3, 2025. Under President’s Rule, he re-established administrative coherence, strengthened security coordination, initiated reforms, and invoked strong legal measures-including the National Security Act- to curb violence. His assertion that law and order has “tremendously improved” is supported by developments on the ground. The ethnic conflict left nearly 300 dead, thousands injured, and more than 60,000 displaced-a trauma still fresh in public memory. For many, the possibility of Biren Singh’s return raises uncomfortable questions about accountability and the legitimacy of decisions taken during one of the darkest chapters in Manipur’s history. In a democracy, the will of the people is supreme; within an Assembly, the will of the majority prevails. But governance is not merely a matter of arithmetic-it is an exercise in wisdom, sensitivity, and foresight. Any government formed without addressing the legitimate aspirations of Manipur’s diverse communities will remain vulnerable to renewed unrest. What the state needs today is not haste, but careful judgment. The decisions taken now will shape not only the political future of Manipur but the very stability of a state still recovering from the shockwaves of conflict.