Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Economy to grow 6-6.8% in FY24: Eco Survey

India’s economy is projected to slow to 6-6.8 per cent in the fiscal year starting April – still remaining the fastest growing major economy in the world – as extraordinary challenges facing the globe will likely hurt exports, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday.
The projection of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is higher than the 6.1 per cent estimate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and compares with the survey’s estimated 7 per cent expansion in the current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year.
The survey that details the state of the economy was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman a day before she presents Union Budget 2023-24. “At least three shocks have hit the global economy since 2020,” the report, prepared by Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, said.
Starting with the pandemic-induced contraction of the global output, the Russian-Ukraine conflict last year led to a worldwide surge in inflation. And then, central banks across economies led by the US Federal Reserve responded with synchronised policy rate hikes to curb inflation.
The rate hike by the US Fed drove capital into the US markets causing the US dollar to appreciate against most currencies. This led to the widening of the Current Account Deficits (CAD) and increased inflationary pressures in net importing economies like India.
“The Indian economy, however, appears to have moved on after its encounter with the pandemic, staging a full recovery in FY22 (April 2021 to March 2022) ahead of many nations and positioning itself to ascend to the pre-pandemic growth path in FY23.
“Yet in the current year, India has also faced the challenge of reining in inflation that the European strife accentuated,” the survey said.
However, the challenge of the depreciating rupee, although better performing than most other currencies, persists with the likelihood of further increases in policy rates by the US Fed.
The widening of the CAD may also continue as global commodity prices remain elevated and the growth momentum of the Indian economy remains strong, it said.
The survey stated that the inflation projection by RBI at 6.8 per cent for current fiscal (FY23) is above the central bank’s tolerance limit but the pace of price increase is not high enough to deter private consumption or low enough to weaken investment.
According to the survey, the pressure on the Indian rupee could continue due to the tightening of monetary policy.
On exports, it said the growth moderated in the second half of current fiscal year. Slowing world growth, shrinking global trade led to loss of export stimulus in the second half of the current year.
A slowdown in global growth will likely push down global commodity prices and improve India’s CAD in FY24.


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