The long-awaited Durga Puja celebrations across North East India are in for a potential dampener, as heavy rains look set to make a comeback over the region this weekend.
As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), fairly widespread/widespread light to moderate rains, along with isolated heavy falls (64.5 mm-115.5 mm), thunderstorms and lightning are all very likely across Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura from October 1-3 and over Assam and Meghalaya from October 2-5.
In view of these predictions, the IMD has issued a yellow watch over all the North Eastern states on their respective heavy rainfall days.
The advisory urges the residents to “be updated” on the weather situation, especially when heading outdoors for pandal hopping and other festive celebrations.
Overall, these conditions will be caused by a combination of meteorological factors. These include a cyclonic circulation located over west-central Bay of Bengal off the Andhra Pradesh coast, an east-west trough running from the aforementioned cyclonic circulation to Coastal Karnataka, and lastly, a new cyclonic circulation that’s likely to emerge into northeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours.
In fact, these systems are also expected to dump heavy rains over the neighbouring East Indian states of West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and more in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the end of September has concluded the southwest monsoon period, although the monsoon conditions are yet to withdraw from the northeastern regions. Normally, this withdrawal date for the Northeast falls between October 10-15.
As far as the seasonal performance is concerned, the northeastern region collectively recorded below-average rainfall during the four monsoon months from June to September. The combined monsoon rain figure for East and Northeast India stands at 1124.8 mm — 18% below their long-period monsoon average of 1367.3 mm.
Within the Northeast, the Assam-Meghalaya subdivision recorded 1600.7 mm rain (9% deficit), the N.M.M.T. states registered 943.2 mm precipitation (28% deficit), Arunachal Pradesh received 1430.3 mm (15% deficit), while Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim enjoyed precisely ‘normal’ seasonal rains at 1887.1 mm.