Voting in 3 states

As voters in Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura go to the polls on February 27 to elect their respective 60-member legislative assembly, the outcome will also influence the 2024 Lok Sabha polls while there is a feeling that these states could end up with a hung assembly. This is more in the case with Meghalaya where contenders for power- the ruling Meghalaya Democratic Alliance(MDA) comprising of National People’s Party(NPP), United Democratic Party(UDP), People’s Democratic Front(PDF), Hill State People’s Democratic Party(HSPDP)- will be fighting the polls separately. Congress had won 21 seats in 2018 and NPP won 20 but Mukul Sangma somehow could not garner support from parties who feared that being in alliance with the Congress would earn the ire of the BJP at the Centre. A total of 375 candidates, belonging to 12 political parties and Independents are in the fray for 60 Assembly seats in Meghalaya. But no party is contesting with an alliance or a seat-sharing arrangement even as coalition government has become a norm. The NPP is fighting to remain as a major force and is in fierce contest against TMC to dominate the Garo hills districts while the UDP and HSPDP are fighting it out to dominate the Khasi, Jaintia and Ribhoi districts. The biggest political joke is when 12 Congress MLAs in Meghalaya led by former chief minister Mukul Sangma “merged” with TMC, the latter instantly became the main opposition from being ‘zero’ in the assembly and obtaining 0.4% votes in 2018 . In Tripura also the fight is largely quadrangular between ruling BJP and opposition TMC, Tipra Motha and Cong-CPM alliance. The state is also likely to throw up a hung house in the event the BJP does not win majority on its own. The Tipra Motha founded by former Congress leader and Tripura royal dynast Pradyut Deb Barma could likely be the party which would be wooed by other parties to form a coalition government. In Nagaland, the hot topic’ Naga political solution’ that has been raging since 2003 and especially 2018, has receded to the background after the government of India brushed aside the voices for securing a solution before election. In its place came demand for Frontier Nagaland state which was dealt directly by union home minister Amit Shah(and not the UDA opposition-less government). Shah visited Nagaland twice during January and February over the issue and appear to have struck some deal with the proponents for which the earlier call to abstain from election was ‘relaxed’ to allow smooth conduct of election in eastern Nagaland. The centre’s change of mind over Naga solution has made public disbelieve all those promises made in the recent past but finally turning out to be just for sounding politically correct. One of the NGOs, the Naga Hoho has even questioned the “sincerity and habitual rhetoric of the government of India with regard to the Indo-Naga political settlement”. Even the 7-member Working Committee of the Naga National Political Groups(NNPGs) have accused the state BJP of “playing with fire” by going ahead with elections without an acceptable political settlement. The political parties are mainly looking to win enough seats at least to form a post-poll coalition. The lack of confidence, at least for the NDPP and BJP has been the anti-incumbency but unlike Meghalaya and Tripura there is no opposition in Nagaland. All want to be part of a post-coalition government.