INDIA’s Waterloo in Bihar

The crushing defeat of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in the 2025 Bihar Assembly election-reduced to a mere 25 seats from the 75 it held in 2020-has shaken the very foundations of the Bihar’s political order. The electoral drubbing is far more than a temporary reversal as it signals a deep structural crisis within the party and the Lalu Yadav family. Fault lines that were long visible but have now erupted into full public view, leaving the political dynasty visibly fractured and its internal cohesion in shambles. For decades, the RJD shaped Bihar’s political discourse, drawing on an unwavering support base and a cult of personality built around Lalu Prasad. Today, however, the party stands diminished- bled by internal rebellion, organisational decay, and an unmistakable decline in public trust. The magnitude of the loss has raised unsettling questions about whether the RJD is entering a phase of irreversible decline. Even loyalists quietly admit that the party has not merely lost an election but lost its political aura, its narrative control, and perhaps its capacity to rebuild. At the centre of this crisis is Tejashwi Yadav, the face of the Mahagathbandhan and Lalu’s chosen heir. His leadership, once touted as the RJD’s generational reset, now appears caught in legal challenges, political missteps, and eroding credibility. With tightening investigations and the real possibility of imprisonment- a warning made by the BJP during the campaign-Tejashwi’s future looks uncertain. Such a scenario could plunge the already-weakened RJD deeper into turmoil.Yet the RJD’s collapse is only one strand of the opposition’s unfolding disaster. The Mahagathbandhan as a whole, and the INDIA bloc in particular, have emerged from the Bihar election bruised, exposed, and directionless. The Congress managed only six seats-down dramatically from the 19 it won in 2020-reinforcing doubts about its electoral relevance. This dismal performance is likely to intensify internal demands for Rahul Gandhi to either step aside from his de facto leadership role or be allowed to lead without the encumbrance of an unwieldy alliance structure. Much of the defeat is due to the alliance’s disastrous management of seat-sharing exercise. Weeks of public bickering, overlapping claims, and embarrassingly open disagreements made the coalition look inept and unprepared. Even within the Mahagathbandhan, “friendly fights” between RJD and Congress candidates further muddied the picture, confusing voters and weakening the alliance’s prospects. Also the role of spoilers cannot be ignored. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj (JS) party, though failing to win a single seat, polled 3.3% of the vote and played spoiler in at least 35 constituencies. In 14 of these, JS votes exceeded the margin by which RJD lost, directly damaging the alliance. Similarly, AIMIM’s victory in five Muslim-majority seats- traditionally strongholds of the RJD-Congress combine-further eroded the Mahagathbandhan’s base. Both Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, scions of political dynasties, have emerged from this election weakened and bruised. Their families once dominated their respective party narratives but today, their future roles are under scrutiny. The INDIA bloc has to confront a difficult question- who leads the Opposition forward? The answer may lie beyond the Gandhi family or the Yadav clan- perhaps with leaders like Mamata Banerjee or any of the assertive southern chief ministers. Bihar has delivered more than a verdict- a strong warning that voters cannot be taken for granted by political families. Whether the Opposition chooses to heed will determine the shape of national politics in the months ahead.