Emkay Global Financial Services reported that Indian markets may see a smart recovery as crude concerns ease and P/E premiums contract. The rupee is projected to rebound toward ₹91 per US dollar, and the 10‑year government bond yield may ease to 6.65% from 6.83% within two to three months.
The Nifty fell 5% in recent sessions due to FPI selling, but the trend is expected to reverse. A Brent average of $80 per barrel in FY27 could lower GDP growth to 6.6%, raise inflation to 4.3%, and widen the current account deficit to 1.7% of GDP. Brent above $100 could push CAD/GDP beyond 2.5% and create a balance‑of‑payments deficit of about $85 billion.
Oil and gas prices remain below shock levels, with Brent at $85 considered manageable. At current prices, the government may need to cut excise taxes by about ₹19.5 per litre on fuel and absorb an LPG subsidy of ₹1 trillion, entailing a fiscal cost of nearly 1.1% of GDP.