Record rise in farm yield, exports

India’s agricultural sector is charting new territory as record-breaking food production sets the stage for a stronger presence in global export markets. While farms flourish, a contrasting picture emerges in the industrial landscape, where stagnating production signals underlying economic strain. This divergence underscores a shifting balance in India’s growth narrative—buoyant fields amid faltering factories.
To pace it up further, the Centre also increased kharif crop minimum support price (MSP) focusing on pulses, oilseeds and coarse grains. The MSP for paddy was raised by Rs 69, three percent, to Rs 2369 per quintal. The MSP of 14 other items including groundnut, sunflower seed, cotton, tur/arhar, niger seed benefitted.
The Centre claims that its procurement of wheat has surpassed previous three-year records yet below the target. The 5 percent interest subvention scheme on Kisan Credit Card up to Rs 3 lakh will continue.
Amid such farm yield bonanza, the stymied industrial production remains a concern. The country’s industrial output growth slowed to an 8-month low in April, dragged down by contraction in mining, sluggish electricity and manufacturing sectors. It is dipping since reaching a peak of 6.2 percent in April 2024 which had fallen to minus 0.1 percent during mid-year.
India has achieved a record food grain production of 353.95 million tonnes (MT) in the 2024-25 crop season. This is largely due to record harvests of paddy (rice)-149.07 MT, wheat – 117.50 MT, and maize – 42 MT.
India surpassed China to become the world’s largest rice producer. Maize production jumped by 12.3 percent. Oilseeds yield also rise by 7.4 percent.
Data show a record production of rice, wheat, maize, soybean, rapeseed, mustard, and sugarcane. “The third estimated production of major crops such as paddy, wheat, soybean, groundnuts, oilseeds, and pulses are going to be a record,” says Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan.
This is against agricultural ministry figures of about 1.2 percent fall in production a year back
8-year-Record
The food-grain estimate claims 6.6 percent record increase in major crops in eight years. Chouhan announced that the country’s food grain production reached 3539.59 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) in 2024-25, which is 216.61 LMT higher than last year’s (2023-24) 3322.98 LMT.
Another heartening news is India’s agriculture exports rising 6.4 percent to $51.9 billion in 2024-25, from $48.8 billion during the preceding fiscal year ended March 2024. This was as against the almost flat 0.1% growth in the value of its overall goods exports in 2024-25.
In 2024-25, India’s total merchandise exports reached $374.1 billion, a 6 percent increase from the $352.9 billion in 2023-24, excluding petroleum products. This marked a record high for non-petroleum merchandise exports. Overall, India’s total exports (merchandise and services) reached $824.9 billion, the highest ever. Services exports reached a high of $387.5 billion.
However, country’s exports in February 2025 experienced a decline, marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction. The export value fell to $ 36.91 billion, a 10.85 percent decrease compared to the same period last year. Both exports and imports saw a sharp contraction. This decline was primarily attributed to factors like volatility in petroleum prices, global uncertainties, and the impact of sanctions on the gems and jewellery sector.
The country is hit also by lower capital expenditure hitting the Rs 86000 crore construction equipment industry. It grew 21 percent in in 2022-21 percent and 24 percent in 2023-24. Companies like Caterpillar, JCB, Tata Hitachi, Cummins and Volvo CE are piqued at the overall growth of 3 percent in 2024-25.
Private sector laggard
Overall construction infrastructure activities are stated to be slowing down. The infra and construction goods sector slowed by 4 percent in April against 8.5 percent in April 2024, according to National Statistics Office (NSO).
The construction industry has been thriving on liberal government expenditure. Its thaw speaks a lot that the private sector contribution to the country’s growth is below the expectation.
The manufacturing sector remained subdued, growing by 3.4 percent in April, lower than the 4.2 percent a year earlier. The IIP dip is stated to be lower than estimated at 2.7 percent fall. The slowdown is broad-based across sectors, according to rating agency ICRA. The infra and construction goods sector slowed to 4 percent in April against 8.5 percent in April 2024.
In 2024-25, India’s private sector capex also saw a decline, falling by nearly 9 percent to Rs 26.8 lakh crore. This represents a three-year low and the second consecutive year-on-year decline.
Both the developments, in agriculture and industry, are significant in the light of the US policy manipulations by President Donald Trump. India is on protracted negotiations with the US to moderate and modify the tariff regime particularly in thawed world market, where multilateral UN institutions, including World Trade Organisation, are being bypassed. Surfeit of bilateral transactions like the Indo-UK trade deals are changing the global trade scenario. The developing countries are particularly at the receiving end as they have to spend more effort, time and resources on talks.
The settled multilateral norms are being gradually bypassed. It reflects on their exports and global growth.
There are issues of farm exports particularly in the light of Russia-Ukraine war, conflict situations near the Mediterranean zone and Israel-Gaza -the Middle East. It is crucial for India to resolve these for boosting global trade.
Despite a ceasefire in the wake of Operation Sindoor, Pakistan has not lifted ban on its airspace for Indian airlines. It is bleeding the airlines industry by a cost overrun of 30 percent a flight. Air India estimated it lost over Rs 100 million in a month for detouring Pakistan.
The stock markets too are tizzy having lost severely since January as it crashed with the US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes and retaliation from China fueled investors’ jitters amid fears that a full-blown trade war could impact economic growth across the world.
The pace of policy pronouncements, along with postponements and modifications, has created heightened uncertainty for companies and US trading partners. A fluid trade policy environment is likely to continue as the administration continues to negotiate, takes steps to impose additional sectoral tariffs and reviews requests for product-specific exemptions from tariffs amid the latest US Federal Court striking down Trump tariffs. The coming year months may see many global changes and the fortunes of India.