Russia may return to US dollar settlement system in Trump deal

Russia is actively considering a return to the US dollar settlement system as part of a potential economic partnership with President Donald Trump, according to a 2026 internal Kremlin memo reviewed by Bloomberg. The proposal outlines seven areas of economic alignment between the United States and Russia, centered on fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil, and critical raw materials.
At the core of the discussion is a dramatic policy reversal: Moscow’s possible re-entry into dollar-based trade after years of aggressive de-dollarization following Western sanctions and its removal from the SWIFT financial system in 2022. Since then, Russia has shifted nearly 90% of its trade with China and India into national currencies. Across BRICS, local currency settlement has climbed to roughly 60–67%, down from earlier volatility but far above pre-war levels.
The high-level document, circulated among senior Russian officials and reviewed by Bloomberg, outlines a “fossil-fuel first” strategy that directly challenges the global green energy transition. Under the proposed deal, the U.S. and Russia—the world’s two energy titans—would transition from rivals to partners. This “Energy Dominance” partnership focuses on joint investments in natural gas, offshore oil exploration, and a shared control over critical raw materials like palladium and nickel, which are essential for American tech and aerospace manufacturing.
Russia holds some of the world’s largest reserves of nickel, palladium, and titanium—critical for US aerospace and tech companies.
The memo explicitly mentions benefits for US firms, likely in the form of rebuilding contracts, joint ventures in Siberian gas fields, and direct access to Russian markets.
If finalized, the deal would reshape global finance, strengthen the US dollar’s dominance in energy markets, and potentially weaken BRICS-led efforts to reduce reliance on the greenback. While this memo indicates high-level Kremlin thinking, it’s worth noting that “discussing” a return to the dollar and “executing” it are two different beasts. Significant hurdles remain, specifically regarding the lifting of existing sanctions and the domestic political optics in the US.