In 2025, China managed to rattle some of the world’s most powerful militaries and nations without firing a single bullet or missile. All it did was shut its gates to the world’s rare earth supply. It didn’t just create a trade inconvenience. It set off a geopolitical earthquake. Factories slowed, military suppliers panicked, and governments scrambled in Washington, Europe, Tokyo, New Delhi, and Canberra. What happens when the backbone of modern industry, the rare metals we don’t think about, are no longer available?
On June 10, 2025, a headline made waves. India is officially negotiating with China for rare earth supplies. That’s right. After years of rivalry, border standoffs, and anti-China rhetoric, New Delhi is now quietly knocking on Beijing’s door, asking for help. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal didn’t mince words. In an interview, he confirmed that India’s rare earth reserves are depleting fast. Domestic industries are already complaining, and now the Indian Embassy and Commerce Ministry are in direct talks with their Chinese counterparts. But here’s the irony.
This is the same China that India has tried to sideline for years, banning Chinese apps, raising tariffs, and cutting dependents. And yet, in this critical moment, it’s China that holds the key to India’s future. Why does this matter? Because rare earth elements aren’t just rocks. They’re the backbone of everything modern. Smartphones, satellites, electric cars, jet engines, and missile systems. Without them, a country’s high-tech economy stalls. So the big question is, how did a country that promised to become the next global factory end up knocking its top competitor for raw materials?
Rare earth elements (17 in total)—with names like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—may sound obscure, but they power the world we live in. Without them, there are no electric vehicles, no wind turbines, no advanced fighter jets, and no smartphones. They’re the secret sauce of modern technology, and China owns the recipe.
Right now, China controls about 80 percent of global rare earth mining and over 90 percent of the processing. Think about that. Nearly every piece of modern tech—whether built in America, Japan, or India—likely passed through a Chinese refinery at some point.
In April 2025, Beijing made its power felt. It slapped strict export controls on seven types of rare earths and on rare earth magnets. Exporters now need government permits. The message was clear. Access comes with conditions. This wasn’t just aimed at India but also the US and other global powers, which are starved of rare earths and crucial minerals required for their critical industries.
China understands the leverage it holds. It is no longer just competing in factories or ports. It’s controlling the upstream supply of what the world needs before it can even build anything, and that’s the twist. While others talk about power, China is quietly engineering it, from the ground up. This shift means rare earths are no longer just a commodity. They’re a strategic weapon, and Beijing is ready to use them. India, like many others, didn’t see this coming, and now it’s caught in the chokehold. Now that we understand how rare earths have become a tool of global power, let’s talk about India’s position and why it’s so vulnerable.
The simple truth? India doesn’t have enough processed rare earth metals of its own. Recently the Govt. of India has notified for doubling domestic production of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc., as reported by the Nagaland Post on 1st August 2025. And while some deposits exist in states like Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Odisha, and Jharkhand, India lacks the technology and infrastructure to mine and refine them on a large scale. So, despite the self-reliance slogan “Atmanirbhar Bharat,” when it comes to rare earths, India is deeply dependent on imports, especially from China. This becomes a crisis when you realize just how many of India’s grand dreams rely on rare earths.
Electric vehicles? Need rare earth magnets for motors? Solar and wind energy? Need rare earths for turbines and inverters? Advanced missiles, radars, fighter jets? All need these critical elements. Yet India’s entire supply chain for these sectors is hanging by a thread, and that thread is now in China’s hands. Even worse, there’s no backup plan, no domestic processing, and no large-scale alternatives. Just empty headlines about Atmanirbhar Bharat while factories silently stall due to missing materials. India didn’t prepare. And now it has no leverage. When you don’t control the ingredients, you can’t dictate the recipe, no matter how loudly you shout in the kitchen.
This isn’t the first time India’s foreign policy has hit a wall. New Delhi’s global standing is sinking. And now, when India desperately needs rare earths to power its electric vehicle dreams, its military, and its clean energy plans, it has to go back to the very country it tried to boycott. This isn’t just a policy contradiction. It’s a strategic failure. Modi’s speeches may still echo with confidence, but the ground beneath is crumbling. A country can’t run on pride alone. In international politics, only leverage buys respect. It’s not about who shouts the loudest, but who holds the most leverage. And in this geopolitical jungle, power respects power.
And worse, its foreign policy has been all over the place, provoking China then pleading with it, cheering for the United States, then chasing Russia. Remember the Bharat Utsav 2025 in Moscow recently? Kudos to our CM and his team for promoting Nagaland to the outside world, but beyond the facade, it seemed more like a desperate attempt by Modi’s government to restore and patch up the breaking relationship than a celebration of Indo-Russian friendship. That inconsistency in foreign policy has cost India dearly. Countries like China and the United States aren’t fooled by slogans. They care about what you can deliver. This is the hard truth of the Trump-era world we live in. If you have no cards to play, then you get no seat at the table. And now, with Trump calling India a ‘dead economy’ and slapping 50% tariffs recently, Modi surely is running out of cards to play and risks leaving the table isolated and empty-handed.
So the message is clear: If India wants to be treated like a power, it must stop the empty slogans and focus on honesty, planning, and leadership that prepares for the future. Because if India doesn’t learn from this rare earth emergency, next time, the world won’t just ignore India. It might leave India behind. With PM Modi now officially set to visit China on August 31st, 2025, for the SCO summit, I guess he is probably planning to revive the famous 1950’s slogan “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” to save the day by using his favourite stunt. Yes! You got it right, bear hugging Xi Jinping as a bestie in front of world media. Good luck, Sirji, and don’t forget to say cheese!!! Kuknalim.
R. Francis Kikon.
Naharbari, Dimapur.
Tuesday, March 17, 2026