Voters of Nagaland will be keenly awaiting the result of the April 19 Lok Sabha election held in Nagaland to know who among two main contenders- ruling PDA consensus candidate Dr. Chumben Murry and Congress candidate and NPCC chief S. Supongmeren Jamir- will represent the state to the next 18th Lok Sabha.
Three candidates contested the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Nagaland- Dr. Chumben Murry (NDPP/PDA); S. Supongmeren Jamir (INC) and Bill Hiyathung Lotha (Ind).
Nagaland along with 15 other states and three union territories went to the polls under Phase-1 on April 19. The Lok Sabha election 2024 is being held under seven phases and spread over 44 days ending on June 1. Counting for the Lok Sabha poll held in Nagaland will be conducted on June 4 along with the rest of the other parliamentary constituencies across India.
The PDA consensus candidate backed by all 60 legislators in Nagaland was largely expected to have had a cake walk against the Congress candidate since the latter is almost redundant since 2015 and also having failed to win even one seat since the 2018 assembly election.
In the light of the awesome resources and manpower of the ruling party and backed by all 60 legislators of the opposition-less government, practically it was in reality a no contest between the NDPP/PDA and the Congress.
The scenario changed when the narrative during the campaign became dominated with the issue of attacks on Christian communities across several parts of India by outfits linked with the BJP/RSS.
The NDPP was pushed on the backfoot over allegations that it had failed to voice out against blatant attacks on Christians in Manipur under the BJP government and to an extent, its muted response to the enactment of Assam Healing (Prevention of Evil) Practices Bill, 2024 by the BJP government in Assam.
Added to earlier allegations by the Congress against BJP over this issue, a communiqué by the Clean Election Movement (CEM) of the church against the communal agenda to amend the constitution gained more traction over and above the charge of anti-Christian bigotry.
This narrative on attacks on Christians transformed the 2024 poll campaign in Nagaland and by a twist of fate, it gave the Congress an undeserved massive boost.
According to observers, the NDPP would have cruised along effortlessly to a near landslide had this not been a campaign narrative. The NDPP was on the defensive while trying to convince people that attacks against Christians were isolated and not any policy of the BJP assuring that it will take up any such issue vigorously.
Whether that sentiment could be converted into votes is debatable since the Congress was largely invisible except for the regular press conferences held in Dimapur and Kohima.
Some exit polls probably conducted on the basis of expressed sentiments, speculated that the margin of victory will be very narrow.
While some surveys predicted a narrow win for the PDA candidate, others also predicted a very marginal win for the Congress.
It may be recalled that among the lowest margins was the 1980 Lok Sabha election when Chingwang Konyak (Ind) defeated incumbent Rano Shaiza (UDF) by a margin of 5759 votes.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election Tokheho Yepthomi (NDPP) defeated K.L. Chishi (INC) by a margin of 16,344 votes.
In the 1991 Lok Sabha election Imchalemba (NPC) defeated Shikiho Sema (INC) by a margin of 18,655 votes.
Till date, the highest margin of victory came in the 2009 Lok Sabha election when CM Chang (NPF) defeated K. Asungba Sangtam (INC) by 4,83,021 votes.